Some economists are worried that China\u2019s aging population and\u00a0debt-fueled,\u00a0real estate\u2013focused\u00a0economic model are leading it toward \u201cJapanification.\u201d That\u2019s jargon for a lengthy period of deflation, low economic growth, and weakness in the property market that can be caused by financial distress from extreme debt loads.<\/p>\n
\n
Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, founder and president of Yardeni Research, on Tuesday even wrote a note titled \u201cChina: The World\u2019s Largest Nursing Home,\u201d detailing some of his fears about the future for the world\u2019s second-largest economy.<\/p>\n
Like many of his peers, Yardeni pointed to the ailing\u00a0property market\u2014which had soared for years on the back of cheap debt and immense economic and population growth\u2014as well as China\u2019s disturbing demographic trends, as key concerns for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Falling home and stock prices will lead Chinese consumers to spend less and save more to \u201coffset the erosion\u201d of their wealth in coming years, he argued. And that\u2019s a recipe for a low growth and a deflationary economy\u2014a.k.a. Japanification\u2014when the population is declining.<\/p>\n
But interestingly, China\u2019s issues may be a boon for many Western nations, at least in the near term. \u201cChina\u2019s economy is in a property-led and fertility-led depression,\u201d Yardeni wrote. \u201cThat\u2019s bad news for China\u2019s people and for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) but benefits countries that import Chinese goods at depressed prices.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bad news for China, good news for the U.S.<\/p>\n
Yardeni explained that China\u2019s \u201cweak economy\u201d is especially good news for the U.S., as it has forced Chinese goods exporters to lower their prices, helping to slow rising costs for many products in the U.S. That\u2019s been a key goal of the Federal Reserve over the past 20-plus months in its fight to tame inflation with interest rate hikes. Yardeni argued that China\u2019s economic issues have helped create an \u201cimmaculate disinflation\u201d in the U.S., enabling the Fed to lower inflation without sparking a recession.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s ailing economy could also be good news for U.S.-China relations\u2014and by extension, stocks\u2014moving forward, according to the veteran market watcher. U.S.-China tensions have led to sanctions and export\u00a0restrictions\u00a0between the nations, which have hindered both U.S. and Chinese corporate earnings in recent years. But the current era of protectionism is less likely to continue with China\u2019s economy struggling.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt would be in China\u2019s interest to attract more foreign direct investment to shore up its economy. To achieve that, the Chinese government may have to become less confrontational in matters of foreign affairs, especially vis-\u00e0-vis Taiwan,\u201d he wrote. \u201cOn balance, these are all positive developments for the U.S. stock market.\u201d<\/p>\n
Startling statistics about \u2018China\u2019s geriatric demographic profile\u2019<\/p>\n
Yardeni went on to list a few key statistics that demonstrate China\u2019s demographic problems.<\/p>\n
The first and most important issue he pointed to was the declining fertility rate. China is far from alone when it comes to declining birth rates\u2014the U.S. fertility rate has fallen to just 1.64 births per woman\u2014but it is facing a more extreme version of the phenomenon.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s fertility rate (births per woman) has been below the break-even level of 2.0 since 1991, and it fell to just 1.16 in 2021. \u201cThe Chinese aren\u2019t having enough babies to replace themselves,\u201d Yardeni argued.<\/p>\n
The effect of the declining fertility rate is a shrinking number of annual births. \u201cIn 2022, there were 956,000 births in China, the lowest on record,\u201d Yardeni explained, pointing to data back to 1950. \u201cThat\u2019s down 50% from 10 years ago.\u201d<\/p>\n
After peaking at 1.41 billion in 2021, China\u2019s population declined by 850,000 last year, the first decline since 1961.<\/p>\n
The scary part is that Japan faced similar fertility rate issues beginning in the 1970s, ultimately leading to an era in the 1990s known as \u201cthe lost decade\u201d during which economic growth stagnated as population growth stalled. By 2008, Japan\u2019s population began to decline\u2014and that continues today. Economists believe this decline is one of the main reasons the Japanese economy has faced decades of low growth and stagnant prices.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Source: fortune<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Some economists are worried that China\u2019s aging population and\u00a0debt-fueled,\u00a0real estate\u2013focused\u00a0economic model are leading it toward \u201cJapanification.\u201d That\u2019s jargon for a lengthy period of deflation, low economic growth, and weakness in the property market that can be caused by financial distress from extreme debt loads. Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, founder and president of Yardeni Research, on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":19170,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"yoast_head":"\n
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